dr.evomodel.speciation.BirthDeathGernhard08Model.java Source code

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/*
 * BirthDeathGernhard08Model.java
 *
 * Copyright (c) 2002-2015 Alexei Drummond, Andrew Rambaut and Marc Suchard
 *
 * This file is part of BEAST.
 * See the NOTICE file distributed with this work for additional
 * information regarding copyright ownership and licensing.
 *
 * BEAST is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify
 * it under the terms of the GNU Lesser General Public License as
 * published by the Free Software Foundation; either version 2
 * of the License, or (at your option) any later version.
 *
 *  BEAST is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
 *  but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
 *  MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the
 *  GNU Lesser General Public License for more details.
 *
 * You should have received a copy of the GNU Lesser General Public
 * License along with BEAST; if not, write to the
 * Free Software Foundation, Inc., 51 Franklin St, Fifth Floor,
 * Boston, MA  02110-1301  USA
 */

package dr.evomodel.speciation;

import dr.evolution.tree.NodeRef;
import dr.evolution.tree.Tree;
import dr.evomodelxml.speciation.BirthDeathModelParser;
import dr.inference.model.Parameter;
import dr.util.Author;
import dr.util.Citable;
import dr.util.Citation;
import dr.util.CommonCitations;

import java.util.ArrayList;
import java.util.Collections;
import java.util.List;

import static org.apache.commons.math.special.Gamma.logGamma;

/**
 * Birth Death model based on Gernhard 2008  "The conditioned reconstructed process"
 * Journal of Theoretical Biology Volume 253, Issue 4, 21 August 2008, Pages 769-778
 * doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.005 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.005)
 * <p/>
 * This derivation conditions directly on fixed N taxa.
 * <p/>
 * The inference is directly on b-d (strictly positive) and d/b (constrained in [0,1))
 * <p/>
 * Vefified using simulated trees generated by Klass tree sample. (http://www.klaashartmann.com/treesample/)
 * <p/>
 * Sampling proportion not verified via simulation. Proportion set by default to 1, an assignment which makes the expressions
 * identical to the expressions before the change.
 *
 * @author Joseph Heled
 *         Date: 24/02/2008
 */
public class BirthDeathGernhard08Model extends UltrametricSpeciationModel implements Citable {

    public enum TreeType {
        UNSCALED, // no coefficient 
        TIMESONLY, // n!
        ORIENTED, // n
        LABELED, // 2^(n-1)/(n-1)!  (conditional on root: 2^(n-1)/n!(n-1) )
    }

    public static final String BIRTH_DEATH_MODEL = BirthDeathModelParser.BIRTH_DEATH_MODEL;

    /*
     * mu/lambda
     *
     * null means default (0), or pure birth (Yule)
     */
    private Parameter relativeDeathRateParameter;

    /**
     *    lambda - mu
     */
    private Parameter birthDiffRateParameter;

    private Parameter sampleProbability;

    private TreeType type;

    private boolean conditionalOnRoot;

    /**
     * rho *
     */

    public BirthDeathGernhard08Model(Parameter birthDiffRateParameter, Parameter relativeDeathRateParameter,
            Parameter sampleProbability, TreeType type, Type units) {

        this(BIRTH_DEATH_MODEL, birthDiffRateParameter, relativeDeathRateParameter, sampleProbability, type, units,
                false);
    }

    public BirthDeathGernhard08Model(String modelName, Parameter birthDiffRateParameter,
            Parameter relativeDeathRateParameter, Parameter sampleProbability, TreeType type, Type units,
            boolean conditionalOnRoot) {

        super(modelName, units);

        this.birthDiffRateParameter = birthDiffRateParameter;
        addVariable(birthDiffRateParameter);
        birthDiffRateParameter.addBounds(new Parameter.DefaultBounds(Double.POSITIVE_INFINITY, 0.0, 1));

        this.relativeDeathRateParameter = relativeDeathRateParameter;
        if (relativeDeathRateParameter != null) {
            addVariable(relativeDeathRateParameter);
            relativeDeathRateParameter.addBounds(new Parameter.DefaultBounds(1.0, 0.0, 1));
        }

        this.sampleProbability = sampleProbability;
        if (sampleProbability != null) {
            addVariable(sampleProbability);
            sampleProbability.addBounds(new Parameter.DefaultBounds(1.0, 0.0, 1));
        }

        this.conditionalOnRoot = conditionalOnRoot;
        if (conditionalOnRoot && sampleProbability != null) {
            throw new IllegalArgumentException(
                    "Not supported: birth death prior conditional on root with sampling probability.");
        }

        this.type = type;
    }

    @Override
    public boolean isYule() {
        // Yule only
        return (relativeDeathRateParameter == null && sampleProbability == null && !conditionalOnRoot);
    }

    @Override
    public double getMarginal(Tree tree, CalibrationPoints calibration) {
        // Yule only
        return calibration.getCorrection(tree, getR());
    }

    public double getR() {
        return birthDiffRateParameter.getParameterValue(0);
    }

    public double getA() {
        return relativeDeathRateParameter != null ? relativeDeathRateParameter.getParameterValue(0) : 0;
    }

    public double getRho() {
        return sampleProbability != null ? sampleProbability.getParameterValue(0) : 1.0;
    }

    private double logCoeff(int taxonCount) {
        switch (type) {
        case UNSCALED:
            break;
        case TIMESONLY:
            return logGamma(taxonCount + 1);
        case ORIENTED:
            return Math.log(taxonCount);
        case LABELED: {
            final double two2nm1 = (taxonCount - 1) * Math.log(2.0);
            if (!conditionalOnRoot) {
                return two2nm1 - logGamma(taxonCount);
            } else {
                return two2nm1 - Math.log(taxonCount - 1) - logGamma(taxonCount + 1);
            }
        }
        }
        return 0.0;
    }

    public double logTreeProbability(int taxonCount) {
        double c1 = logCoeff(taxonCount);
        if (!conditionalOnRoot) {
            c1 += (taxonCount - 1) * Math.log(getR() * getRho()) + taxonCount * Math.log(1 - getA());
        }
        return c1;
    }

    public double logNodeProbability(Tree tree, NodeRef node) {
        final double height = tree.getNodeHeight(node);
        final double r = getR();
        final double mrh = -r * height;
        final double a = getA();

        if (!conditionalOnRoot) {
            final double rho = getRho();
            final double z = Math.log(rho + ((1 - rho) - a) * Math.exp(mrh));
            double l = -2 * z + mrh;

            if (tree.getRoot() == node) {
                l += mrh - z;
            }
            return l;
        } else {
            double l;
            if (tree.getRoot() != node) {
                final double z = Math.log(1 - a * Math.exp(mrh));
                l = -2 * z + mrh;
            } else {
                // Root dependent coefficient from each internal node
                final double ca = 1 - a;
                final double emrh = Math.exp(-mrh);
                if (emrh != 1.0) {
                    l = (tree.getTaxonCount() - 2) * Math.log(r * ca * (1 + ca / (emrh - 1)));
                } else { // use exp(x)-1 = x for x near 0
                    l = (tree.getTaxonCount() - 2) * Math.log(ca * (r + ca / height));
                }
            }
            return l;
        }
    }

    public boolean includeExternalNodesInLikelihoodCalculation() {
        return false;
    }

    @Override
    public Citation.Category getCategory() {
        return Citation.Category.TREE_PRIORS;
    }

    @Override
    public String getDescription() {
        return "Gernhard 2008 Birth Death Tree Model";
    }

    @Override
    public List<Citation> getCitations() {
        return Collections.singletonList(
                new Citation(new Author[] { new Author("T", "Gernhard"), }, "The conditioned reconstructed process",
                        2008, "Journal of Theoretical Biology", 253, 769, 778, "10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.005"));
    }
}